Deutsche Bank forecasts 35k Nio, 72k Tesla, 42k Xiaomi EVs in Sept

China EV deliveries forecast to hit peak season

Deutsche Bank predicted a strong peak sales season for China’s electric vehicle market in September 2025. This surge was expected to lead to new monthly delivery records for several major EV makers, including Nio, Xiaomi EV, Xpeng, and Leapmotor, showing the intense competition.

The forecast for key players included a high of 72,000 units for Tesla, a record 42,000 units for Xiaomi EV, and a record 35,000 units for Nio. This delivery outlook for Nio represents a year-on-year increase of about 65 percent.

Tesla projected to lead September deliveries

Deutsche Bank estimated Tesla will deliver approximately 72,000 vehicles in China during September. This high volume is driven by the strong demand for its popular models in the market, representing a significant month-on-month increase of about 27 percent.

The forecast is roughly flat year-on-year, but new order flow is projected to be around 73,000 units in September. This represents a year-over-year increase of approximately 14 percent, thanks to the launch of the new six-seat, long-wheelbase Model Y L SUV.

Nio set to achieve a new monthly record

Nio Inc. was forecast to reach a record delivery total of 35,000 units in September, representing a 12 percent month-on-month increase. The strong performance supports Nio’s plan to accelerate sales through its new multi-brand strategy, which includes Nio, Onvo, and Firefly.

This 35,000-unit projection included about 15,000 units each from the leading Nio and Onvo brands, plus approximately 5,000 units from the Firefly brand. Nio’s August 2025 deliveries were a record 31,305 vehicles.

Xiaomi EV shows huge delivery growth

Xiaomi EV was expected to post a new record of 42,000 deliveries in September, marking a substantial 15 percent month-on-month increase. This achievement demonstrates rapid market acceptance and successful production ramp-up for the technology company.

This delivery forecast represented a massive year-on-year growth of approximately 210 percent for Xiaomi EV. The company’s production in August reached 37,380 units, representing a 22% month-on-month increase and a key factor in the surge in September deliveries.

Nio’s order flow and brand dynamics

Nio Inc.’s new order flow in September was projected to surge to approximately 100,000 units, a steep month-on-month increase of about 67 percent. This strong order intake suggests robust consumer demand for the company’s vehicle lineup.

The order flow was divided into an estimated 80,000 units for the Nio brand, 15,000 units for Onvo, and 5,000 units for Firefly. The Onvo brand faced some battery supply shortages in September, which slightly impacted its full delivery potential volume.

Tesla’s order drivers and registration data

Tesla’s new order flow of roughly 73,000 units for September is primarily boosted by the new six-seat long-wheelbase Model Y L SUV. Deliveries for this new variant began earlier in September.

In the first three weeks of September, Tesla’s insurance registrations in China totaled 46,950 units. This figure provides a clear and factual snapshot of the current delivery rate. Tesla’s August retail sales were 57,152 units.

Xiaomi EV’s production capacity and demand split

The growth in Xiaomi EV’s September deliveries is strongly linked to its production improvements. Capacity enhancements are expected to push monthly output over 50,000 units in the fourth quarter of 2025, demonstrating their focus on scaling up manufacturing.

The forecast’s new order flow of about 25,000 units in September was split between the SUV and sedan models. This includes roughly 15,000 orders for the YU7 SUV and 10,0rs for the SU7 sedan.

Nio’s recent delivery composition and future target

Nio Inc. delivered a record 31,305 vehicles in August, proving the strength of its multi-brand plan. The company’s management has set a high goal for the final quarter of the year.

The August deliveries comprised 10,525 units from the Nio leading brand, 16,434 units from Onvo, and 4,346 from Firefly. The company aimed to deliver 150,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, averaging 50,000 monthly deliveries.

BYD’s wholesale volume and delivery decline

Deutsche Bank estimated BYD’s wholesale volume for September to be about 380,000 units. While slightly up month-on-month by about 2 percent, this forecast represents a year-on-year decline of approximately 9 percent.

The bank expected BYD’s domestic deliveries to be around 320,000 units in September, representing a 17 percent year-over-year decline. BYD’s new orders were expected to total around 320,000 units in September, a month-on-month decline of about 2 percent.

Li Auto’s delivery rise and year-on-year drop

Li Auto was expected to deliver approximately 35,000 vehicles in September, representing a month-on-month increase of around 23 percent. The company is relying on the launch of the new Li i6 model to boost its sales figures.

However, the 35,000-unit forecast also represented a significant year-on-year decline of about 35 percent. This delivery increase is driven by a new order flow of 50,000 to 55,000 units, with the upcoming Li i6 pure-electric SUV expected to bring in 12,000 to 17,000 non-cancellable orders.

Xpeng’s delivery record and order flow weakness

Xpeng was projected to achieve a new monthly delivery record of approximately 40,000 units in September, representing a 6 percent month-over-month increase. The total was divided between domestic and overseas sales.

Domestic retail deliveries were estimated at approximately 37,000 units, while overseas deliveries were expected to be around 3,000 units. Xpeng’s expected new order flow for September was approximately 45,000 units, representing a 13 percent month-on-month decline due to weaker interest in the G7 SUV and the new-generation P7 sedan.

Leapmotor’s record growth and C-Series strength

Leapmotor was forecast to reach a record 63,000 deliveries in September, representing a remarkable year-over-year growth of approximately 87 percent. This delivery total also shows a 10 percent increase compared to the previous month.

Domestic retail sales were estimated at approximately 56,000 units, and exports were projected to total about 7,000 units. Leapmotor’s new order flow is expected to increase by about 13 percent month-on-month to around 63,000 units, primarily due to the popularity of the C-series SUVs.

Aito’s surge driven by the new M7 SUV

The Huawei-backed Aito brand was projected to deliver approximately 45,000 units in September, representing a substantial year-over-year increase of around 24 percent. This forecast also indicated a 14 percent month-on-month increase.

Aito’s new order flow is projected to surge by about 400 percent month-on-month to approximately 130,000 units. The new-generation M7 SUV is expected to contribute a significant share, securing over 100,000 non-cancellable orders.

Nio’s past insurance registration data

Nio’s performance in the first three weeks of September showed its delivery pace through insurance registrations. These early numbers are an indication of the final monthly delivery volume.

Nio Inc.’s insurance registrations in the first three weeks of September totaled 19,110 units. This figure was broken down into 7,535 for the Nio leading brand, 8,050 for Onvo, and 3,525 for Firefly, showing Onvo’s substantial initial volume.

Tesla’s August retail sales context

Tesla’s August retail sales in China, measured by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), provided context for the September forecast. This data highlights the recent sales rebound.

In August, Tesla’s retail sales in China totaled 57,152 units. This marked a 40.71 percent increase from the 40,617 units sold in July, but a 9.93 percent decline from the 63,456 units sold in August of the previous year.

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Xiaomi EV’s delivery consistency and registration

Xiaomi EV has established strong delivery consistency, exceeding the 30,000-unit mark two months before September’s forecast. This points to successful production and logistics management.

Xiaomi EV delivered 36,396 units in August, after delivering 30,452 units in July. Its insurance registrations for the first three weeks of September totaled 26,790 units, supporting the high delivery forecast of 42,000 units for the whole month.

Want to see which brands are gaining momentum in the market? Dive into Hyundai and Kia report strong EV sales in August.

What’s your take on these big numbers? Drop your thoughts below.

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This slideshow was made with AI assistance and human editing.